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Prospect Evaluation, Risks and Volumes (GEO68)


    A decision to drill an exploration well with the objective to find a new oil or gas field must be based on a sound assessment of the prospect's risks and of the volumes: what is the chance that a well will find hydrocarbons, and how much could it be? Risk and volume assessments form the basis for decisions to drill a well or not, and as such form the link between subsurface evaluation and the business aspects of the petroleum industry.
    The course explains how risks and volumes can be assessed in a realistic manner, based on a sound understanding of the geological details of the prospect as well as of its regional geological setting and current play understanding.

    Course Level: Skill
    Duration: 5 days
    Instructor: Jan de Jager

    Designed for you, if you are...

    • A geoscientist working in exploration, a prospect portfolio analyst or a direct supervisor
    • A professional from a discipline working closely with exploration staff, such as a reservoir engineer, petrophysicist or geophysicist

    How we build your confidence

    The course will allow participants to produce well-considered and realistic assessments for prospects they may be working on, and to understand and constructively challenge risk and volume assessments of colleagues and/or partners/competitors (e.g. in a data room).
    Each topic is introduced by a lecture, and learning is re-enforced by practical exercises and discussions.

    The benefits from attending

    By the end of the course you will feel confident in your understanding of the essentials for realistic risk and volume assessments of exploration prospects.


    • The fundamentals of risk and volumes assessment; translating geological understanding into reasonable numbers and ranges
    • The difference between risk and uncertainty
    • Fundamentals of statistics; including explanation of distribution curves, understanding of expectation curves, do's and don'ts for adding risked volumes, and Bayes theorem
    • Uncertainty of trap, reservoir, seal and charge, illustrated by examples
    • Guidelines and exercises for estimating risks realistically and consistently
    • Calculating volume ranges for prospects and for portfolios of prospects; how to add prospect volumes for a correct representation of prospect portfolios
    • Incorporation of geophysical evidence (DHIs) in a realistic risk assessment



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