« Back to course list

Modelling and Managing Uncertainty in the Subsurface (RES38)

  • 13-15 August 20183 daysVienna, AustriaCourse Fee: 2990 EUR + VAT


Uncertainty quantification is a synthesis course that brings together various disciplines such as geology, geophysics, reservoir engineering, data science and decision analysis. Uncertainty quantification is not seen as some posterior analysis, or skill, but as key to successful decision making in real field situations. Participants will learn how a proper management of uncertainty reduces costs and unwanted surprises.

In this short course we cover a modern approach to managing and modelling uncertainty in subsurface formations within a decision making framework. We outline an uncertainty quantification workflow that focuses on several elements:
  • Decision-driven sensitivity analysis to determine key reservoir variables
  • Geological scenario development to avoid reducing uncertainty artificially and during history matching
  • Use of seismic and production data for model rejection
  • Issues of computational challenges through model validation and screening

For in-house presentations this course can also be arranged as 5-day "Workshop" with practical exercises.

Course Level: Skill
Instructor: Jef Caers

Designed for you, if you are...

  • A reservoir geologist, geophysicist or engineer who is involved in a multi-disciplinary asset team building uncertainty models for reservoir appraisal and production planning

How we build your confidence

  • The course uses practical field studies to guide you through the modelling workflow from geological interpretation to history matching and forecasting
  • In addition to the course manual you will also receive the textbook 'Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences' by Jef Caers

The benefits from attending

By the end of the course, you will feel confident in your understanding and use of practical workflows for modelling uncertainty and the integration of geological, geophysical and production data for forecasting and decision making.


  • What is uncertainty?
  • Managing uncertainty in the oil & gas industry
  • Decision making under uncertainty
  • Representing uncertainty in metric space
  • Decision-focused sensitivity analysis for reservoir models
  • Validating uncertainty models with reservoir log, seismic and production data
  • Model selection and model complexity: addressing the computational challenge
  • Uncertainty quantification with seismic and production data
  • Calculating value of information

Customer Feedback

"It opens a new area in the industry and changes your view on it" - Reservoir Engineer at MND
"Very thought provoking, excellent tools and strategies for problem solving." - Reservoir Engineer at BG Group




HOT Engineering GmbH

Parkstrasse 6
8700 Leoben, Austria

HOT Engineering Vienna Office

Herrengasse 1-3, Floor 2
1010 Vienna, Austria
Tel.: +43 3842 43053-0
Fax: +43 3842 43053-1
E-Mail: hot@hoteng.com

HOT Reservoir Solutions GmbH HOT Microfluidics GmbH

Am Stollen 19
38640 Goslar, Germany

Tel.: +49 151 42440 739
Fax: +43 3842 430 53-1
E-Mail: hotrs@reservoirsolutions.com
E-Mail: microfluidics@hoteng.com

HOT Middle East

138 Fatimah Bint Mubarak Street
Al Yasat Tower, P.O. Box: 97
Abu Dhabi, UAE

Tel.: +971 2 672 0730
Fax: +971 2 674 2422
E-Mail: me@hoteng.com

HOT Engineering Libyan Branch

Essyahia City
Tripoli, Libya

Tel.: +218 21 483 7278
Fax: +218 21 483 2283
E-Mail: libya@hoteng.com

HOT Engineering GmbH   Tel: +43 3842 43 0 53-0   Fax +43 3842 43 0 53-1   hot@hoteng.com