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Exploration Economics (PBM19)


    This is a very intensive multi-disciplinary course designed to give a comprehensive summary of the economics of oil and gas exploration. Exploration - compared to other businesses - has many distinctive features making the economic evaluations unique within the general framework of petroleum economics.
    The course starts with an overview of exploration risk assessment and its effect on prospect mapping (seismic), exploratory drilling and appraisal project economics. The sophistication of economic evaluation techniques as well as the importance of correct business model set-up is demonstrated by real-life case studies. The course concludes with the economics of project portfolio models.

    Course Level: Skill
    Duration: 3 days
    Instructor: Imre Szilágyi

    Designed for you, if you are...

    • An experienced exploration project manager, a line manager of an exploration business unit or a geoscience team leader
    • A senior member of new opportunity evaluation and upstream business development teams
    • An E&P economist working on financial evaluations of exploration projects

    How we build your confidence

    The key features of the course are interactivity and out-of-the-box thinking. The definite goal is to bridge the mind-gaps between seniors and managers with different professional backgrounds (i.e. geosciences, engineering and economics).
    You will be encouraged to bring up your own case studies and to build up the evaluation models in teams.

    The benefits from attending

    By the end of the course you will feel confident in your understanding of:

    • Relatedness of prospect and exploration project risks
    • How the exploration risk is matured through the phases of exploration
    • Defining a correct and adequate-to-case business evaluation model
    • The logic of your peers you have to collaborate with in economic evaluations
    • Applying a multi-disciplinary approach to economic evaluations
    • Practical aspects of exploration portfolio management


    • The geological probability theory and probability of success in exploration
      - Components of the geological probability
      - Play and prospect models
      - Probability of Success (POS) in prospect mapping, prospect drilling and in appraisal
    • The expected net present value and the expected monetary value
      - Conjugate cash-flows and probabilities of success
      - Expected value or value of the game?
      - The value of the yet-to-find
    • Evaluation case studies
      - Prospect drilling
      - Prospect mapping
      - Appraisals
    • Treatment of irregularities
      - Conditionality of geological probability components
      - Interdependent geological models
    • Exploration portfolio management
      - Characteristics of the operative portfolios
      - Exploration risk diversification efficiency
      - Understanding of the balanced exploration portfolio
      - Estimation bias analyses



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