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Decision Quality in Organisations (PBM01)

    Description

    Strategic and tactical decisions about your company’s future - lease or company acquisitions, oil and gas field developments, selecting drilling locations, initiating seismic and reservoir studies, R&D investments - are often complex and have highly uncertain outcomes and consequences.

    • Should we acquire the right to explore a new area with highly uncertain reserves?
    • How much should we be willing to pay for more information?
    • What’s the value of building extra flexibility into a development?
    • Should we continue or terminate a R&D program?
    • How should we balance the corporate portfolio of investments?
    • What share of a risky project is right for our company?
    • What partners should we seek?

    This course introduces you to techniques and methodologies that clarify thinking and choice in complex petroleum decision situations as well as avoid the pitfalls of intuitive decision making. The concepts and techniques are stimulating and beneficial - enabling you to apply risk and decision making concepts to your jobs . . . immediately.

    Course Level: Skill
    Instructor: Reidar Bratvold

    Designed for you, if you are...

    • Involved in asset valuation as an executive, manager or technical expert either as a producer or user of valuations

    The techniques are applicable to all aspects of petroleum exploration and production - prospect evaluation, resource allocation, diversification, risk sharing, and corporate planning.

    Suitable for people with a range of technical experience, from those who have not been exposed to advanced valuation methods to those who may have explored the use of the latest in valuation ideas.

    How we build your confidence

    The course combines lectures, group work, and individual exercises. A number of examples and practical decision problems will be addressed - both in the lectures as well as in the practice sessions. Microsoft Excel with decision tree and Monte Carlo Simulation add-ons will be used for many of the examples and exercises.
    In addition to the course manual, participants will receive a copy of the textbook 'Making Good Decisions'. This book provides essential reading for both technical professionals and managers.

    The benefits from attending

    By the end of the course you will feel confident in your understanding of how to integrate expert knowledge from geophysics, structural geology reservoir and production engineering into decision relevant information for the purpose of making better decisions.

    Topics

    • Decisions under uncertainty
    • Decision quality
    • Uncertainty and probability
    • Attitudes towards risk taking
    • Decision structuring
      - Decision trees
      - Influence diagrams
    • Dealing with uncertainty - value of information and value of flexibility
    • Describing uncertainty - Monte Carlo simulation
    • Behavioural challenges in decision making

    Customer Feedback

    "It was the first training of this subject and it was really excellent. I think I can take advantage of the course and I really enjoyed it." - Reservoir Engineer at Qatar Petroleum
    "The course topic is required in everyday life decisions and in business as well." - Engineer at Daleel Petroleum LLC


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