Description

Designed for you, if you are...

• An energy analyst or project manager
• A petroleum engineer or operations manager
• A geoscientist
• A business development & corporate strategist
• An investment & portfolio analyst
• A policy specialist or regulatory advisor

How we build your confidence

• Hands-on exercises using financial and statistical models
• Real-world case studies covering successful assessments
• Expert-led discussions on models and decision consequences
• Software-based simulation for uncertainty quantification

The benefits from attending

• Builds expertise in petroleum reserves assessment, probability models, and uncertainty quantification for effective decision making
• Sharpens decision-making ability under uncertainty
• Expands economic insights for energy investments
• Enhances career prospects in project evaluation, portfolio management, and corporate strategy

• Strengthens corporate reserves assessment and understanding
• Improves project evaluation, decision making, and risk assessment
• Enhances strategic adaptability in an evolving energy landscape
• Boosts competitive positioning through informed investment strategies

Topics

• Introduction to strategic decision-making in petroleum ventures
• Global energy trends and credible reporting standards
• International classification systems: PRMS, SEC, UNFC
• Definitions and distinctions: Reserves, Contingent Resources, Prospective Resources
• Petroleum formation and subsurface uncertainty
• The hydrocarbon value chain
• Discovery status and commerciality criteria
• Risks and opportunities in early-stage volume assessments

• Inputs, assumptions, and drivers of volumetric models
• Project-based approach to reserves assessment
• Recovery factor analysis and uncertainty
• PRMS and SEC classification systems
• Probabilistic representation of recoverable reserves
• Reserves from incremental projects
• Case study: Differentiating maturity stages in an offshore oil and gas project

• Statistics and probability distributions for estimation
• Estimating percentiles and interpreting P-values
• Correlation and dependency management
• Bayesian updating and Swanson's Mean
• Deterministic vs. probabilistic methods in reserves estimation
• Interactive model building in Excel
• Decision framing in resource-based projects

• Geological, technical, and commercial risk classifications
• Volumetric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
• Project economic assessments and valuation metrics
• Decision trees and influence diagrams
• Decision modeling
• Role of petroleum economics in reserves estimation
• Case study: Uncertainty quantification in frontier assets

• Linking subsurface volumes to project economics
• Break-even pricing, economic cut-offs, and development thresholds
• Assessment and assurance workflows
• Reporting standards, stakeholder expectations, and digital tools
• Aggregation of reserves and resources across assets and categories
• Integrated strategy and market signals
• Future trends: ESG factors and digital assurance tools
• Capstone: Reserve classification and investment pitch simulation